Scientists studying Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier, often referred to as the “Doomsday Glacier,” have made a startling discovery. According to a report by CNN, researchers found that the glacier is melting increasingly rapidly and may be on an irreversible path to collapse, which could lead to catastrophic global sea level rise.
Their findings, detailed across a series of studies, offer the clearest understanding yet of this dynamic glacier. The outlook is dire, the scientists warned in a report published on Thursday, summarizing the key conclusions from their six years of research.
The team discovered that ice loss from Thwaites is expected to accelerate this century. Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist with the British Antarctic Survey and a member of the research team, said, “Thwaites’ retreat has significantly sped up over the last 30 years. Our findings suggest it is poised to retreat even more rapidly.”
The scientists predict that Thwaites Glacier and the Antarctic Ice Sheet could collapse within the next 200 years, with devastating consequences. Thwaites alone holds enough ice to raise sea levels by over 2 feet, but because it acts as a barrier holding back the Antarctic Ice Sheet, its collapse could eventually trigger a sea level rise of around 10 feet, threatening coastal cities from Miami and London to Bangladesh and the Pacific Islands.
Scientists have long understood that Thwaites, the size of Florida, was particularly vulnerable due to its geography. The land beneath the glacier slopes downward, exposing more ice to warmer ocean water as it melts. However, until recently, the exact mechanisms driving its retreat were poorly understood.
“Antarctica remains the largest unknown in forecasting future sea level rise,” the scientists from the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) said in a statement.
Over the past six years, researchers conducted a range of experiments to bring more clarity. One breakthrough came from Icefin, a torpedo-shaped robot sent to the glacier’s grounding the point where the ice rises from the seabed and begins to float, a key area of vulnerability. Kiya Riverman, a glaciologist from the University of Portland, said the first images from Icefin approaching the grounding line were emotional for the team. “For glaciologists, this was like the moon landing,” she said at a press conference. “It was a significant moment-we were seeing this critical area for the first time.”
The images from Icefin revealed unexpected melting patterns, with warm ocean water flowing through deep cracks and forming “staircase” structures in the ice. Another study using satellite and GPS data showed that tides were pushing seawater more than six miles beneath Thwaites, accelerating the melting by forcing warm water under the ice.
In addition, researchers examined the glacier’s history. A team led by Julia Wellner from the University of Houston analyzed marine sediment cores to reconstruct the glacier’s past, finding that it began retreating rapidly in the 1940s, likely triggered by a strong El Nino event. “These findings give us a broader understanding of ice behaviour, providing more detail than what we can see from modern observations,” Wellner told CNN.
Amid the alarming news, there was one piece of positive information. Scientists had feared that if Thwaites’ ice shelves collapsed, it could expose towering cliffs of ice that would quickly crumble into the ocean, causing a chain reaction of collapse. However, computer models indicated that while this process is possible, it is less likely than previously thought.
Despite this, the overall outlook remains bleak. The scientists predict that Thwaites and the Antarctic Ice Sheet could be lost entirely by the 23rd century. Even with immediate action to curb fossil fuel use, which is not happening at the necessary pace, it may already be too late to prevent the glacier’s collapse.
As this phase of the ITGC project concludes, researchers emphasize the need for further study to better understand this complex glacier and whether its retreat can still be halted. “Although we’ve made progress, there’s still considerable uncertainty about what lies ahead,” said Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at the University of California, Irvine. “I’m deeply concerned that this region of Antarctica is already in the process of collapse.”
