Congress began the day with laddoos and jalebis at its headquarters, buoyed by initial trends in the Haryana Assembly elections that hinted at a potential comeback. However, their celebrations were short-lived, as the tide turned in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), now inching closer to the 50-seat mark. Congress, trailing with 35 seats, faces mounting questions about its strategy and leadership.
In what is being called one of the most surprising twists in Indian political history, the BJP appears set to pull off a hat trick in Haryana, a state often referred to as the ‘Jatland’. This defies the exit polls that had predicted a decisive victory for Congress, which banked on public discontent and anti-incumbency sentiment to make its return.
BJP’s unexpected success in Haryana despite anti-incumbency
The one question on everyone’s mind is, what worked for the BJP? Despite facing anti-incumbency, the saffron party has managed to turn the tables, consolidating its position across the state. Haryana reported a voter turnout of approximately 67.90 per cent across its 90 Assembly seats, and the BJP’s strategy appears to have paid off.
The Times of India reported that while Yadav votes largely favoured the BJP, Congress had been hoping to ride a wave of Jat support. However, the BJP made significant inroads in traditionally Jat-dominated constituencies, which helped shift the balance.
Political analyst Satish Tyagi points out Other Backward Classes communities have gravitated towards the BJP over the past decade. This has provided the party with a strong electoral foundation in rural and semi-urban areas, further solidified by the BJP’s outreach to non-Jat voters.
Congress’ internal struggles raise questions
For Congress, the election outcome has raised difficult questions. Was it a mistake to rely too heavily on Bhupinder Singh Hooda? The public rivalry between Hooda and Kumari Selja over the chief ministerial post may have contributed to Congress’ underperformance. Furthermore, concerns about Hooda dominating ticket distribution have led critics to accuse the party of poor candidate selection.
In retrospect, was Congress too overconfident? Many within the party are now questioning whether complacency set in too early.
Saini factor in BJP’s Haryana success
Haryana’s current Chief Minister, Nayab Saini, has also played a pivotal role in the BJP’s resurgence. Leading from Ladwa, Saini has tipped the scales in the BJP’s favour. His appointment as the state’s 11th Chief Minister, replacing Manohar Lal Khattar, was unexpected but has proven to be a masterstroke for the party.
Saini, who assumed office only two-and-a-half months before the elections due to the imposition of the model code of conduct, has been quick to engage voters. His tenure has been marked by a flurry of activity, including convening Cabinet meetings and announcing benefits for key voter groups such as the backward classes, employees, and traders. Jobs were advertised toward the end of his short tenure, signalling his focus on governance and voter outreach.
Saini’s efforts, particularly in providing benefits to the backward classes, have helped consolidate the non-Jat vote. This strategy, which aimed to split the Jat vote among Congress, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD), and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), seems to have worked in the BJP’s favour.
However, Saini’s overt focus on the backward community has led to perceptions that he primarily represents this group, rather than all of Haryana. Despite this, his popularity among non-Jat voters has contributed significantly to the BJP’s success.
BJP’s vision of ‘Naya Kashmir’ fails to gain electoral traction
While the BJP appears poised for victory in Haryana, its ambitions in the Kashmir Valley have hit a roadblock. The party’s vision of ‘Naya Kashmir’ has not translated into electoral gains in the region, with voters expressing dissatisfaction with the handling of Article 370’s abrogation.
In August 2019, the central government revoked Article 370, stripping Jammu and Kashmir of its special status and dividing the region into two Union Territories. This move was met with months of restrictions, causing widespread frustration among residents. As conditions began to improve, the Narendra Modi government unveiled its vision of ‘Naya Kashmir’, promising development, jobs, and security.
However, many Kashmiris still feel deeply alienated. While the government has taken strong measures against terrorism, separatism, and stone-pelting, residents argue that their voices are being stifled. The sense of loss surrounding the elimination of special status lingers, with many believing that fear is being used to suppress dissent. This discontent has hindered the BJP’s ability to build a strong electoral base in the Valley.
First Published: Oct 08 2024 | 4:23 PM IST
