While early trends are likely to emerge by midday, a clearer picture of the election outcome will become apparent by late afternoon. Under India’s first-past-the-post electoral system, the candidate with the highest number of votes in each constituency will be declared the winner once the counting is completed. The Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections were conducted in three phases. Voter turnout was strong, with 61.38 per cent recorded in the first phase on September 18, 57.31 per cent in the second phase on September 25, and 65.48 per cent in the final phase on October 1.
Political leaders and analysts expressed doubt following the release of exit polls on Saturday which saw the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance leading, with no clear majority. Some said to wait for the actual results, while NC leader Omar Abdullah outright rejected the predictions, referring to them as “time-pass”.
Exit polls suggest the Congress-NC alliance is leading in Jammu and Kashmir, with seat projections ranging from 35 to 48 across different polls, but still short of a clear majority. The BJP is predicted to win between 20 to 32 seats, falling behind the alliance and unable to secure an outright majority. The PDP is expected to win a small share of 4 to 12 seats. Smaller parties and independents could secure six to 16 seats, potentially becoming key players in post-election alliances. No single party or alliance is projected to secure a majority, pointing to the likelihood of a hung Assembly.
Omar Abdullah, senior NC leader and former chief minister, was quick to dismiss the significance of the exit polls, stating that only the official results from the counting on October 8 would hold weight.
