Mr Lichtman has accurately predicted nine out of the past ten US presidential polls.
From Ronald Reagan’s re-election triumph amid economic recession to Bill Clinton’s victory against George HW Bush, Allan Lichtman, known as the ‘Nostradamus’ of US Presidential Polls has correctly predicted crucial poll contests in the country. Now, the expert has said that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s dropping out of the race for the White House will help Democrat candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign.
On his YouTube livestream, Mr Lichtman, according to his election prediction system, said that Mr Kennedy’s exit and endorsement of former US President Donald Trump would help Ms Harris. “(Kennedy’s) endorsement of Trump has nothing to do with the keys – (it) doesn’t turn a key one way or the other.” The expert was referring to his “13 keys to the White House,” a groundbreaking method that revolutionised election forecasting.
According to Newsweek, he stated that he “hasn’t definitively called the ‘third party’ key, but said ‘it certainly doesn’t look like (Kennedy) is going to rebound.”
“I’m still reserving judgement,” he added.
Earlier this month, Mr Lichtman said that he currently prefers Democratic US Vice President Kamala Harris to her Republican opponent, Donald Trump. He expressed his opinion to News Nation, saying that “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.” He predicted that Democrats presently hold six of the 13 keys. A main competition, a short- and long-term economy, policy changes, the absence of controversy, and the charisma of a challenger are some of these. “Right now, Democrats have lost three keys” by switching to Harris, he told News Nation.
The expert claimed that the Democrats’ significant defeat in the 2022 midterm elections cost them the “party mandate”. He added that Ms Harris no longer had the “incumbency” and “charisma” keys.
However, in order for him to forecast a Harris defeat, Democrats would need to lose three additional seats according to his prediction model. However, he says that is unlikely to occur.
The historian will make the official prediction for the 2024 White House race after the Democratic convention.
