With the retail inflation or consumer price index (CPI) based inflation data for the month of November 2021 expected tomorrow on December 13, there are expectations that it may climb upwards from 4.48 per cent level of October 2021, to more than 5 per cent for November 2021.
The upward projection of November retail inflation figures is mainly due to rise in prices of fruits and vegetables.
According to Reuters December 6-8 poll of 39 economists, forecast for November consumer price inflation stood at 5.10 per cent, higher than 4.48 per cent recorded in October 2021.
If realised, it would be within the RBI’s target band of 2 per cent to 6 per cent for the fifth consecutive month.
Forecasts in the poll ranged between 4.50 per cent and 5.32 per cent for November’s retail inflation data.
Last week, while maintaining status quo on repo rates, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das had said that for the current fiscal, retail inflation is expected to be at around 5.3 per cent level.
“The inflation trajectory is likely to be in line with our earlier projections, and price pressures may persist in the immediate term. Vegetable prices are expected to see a seasonal correction with winter arrivals in view of bright prospects for the rabi crop. Cost-push pressures continue to impinge on core inflation, though their pass-through may remain muted due to the slack in the economy,” Mr Das had said.
Taking into consideration all these factors, CPI inflation is projected at 5.3 per cent for 2021-22, he had said, adding that it is expected to be at 5.1 per cent in the December quarter of the current fiscal and at 5.7 per cent in March quarter of 2021-22.