Amid spiraling U.S. tariffs, Prime Minister Modi and President Xi meet at the SCO summit to reset India-China ties. Explore how Trump’s economic pressure pushed two rivals towards partnership, and what this shift means for global diplomacy.

Modi and Xi Forge Rapprochement as Trump’s Tariffs Upset the Global Order

A Diplomatic Pivot Amid Trade Tensions

At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping stood shoulder to shoulder, declaring that their nations are “development partners, not rivals” — a mantra that signals a strategic shift amid growing global economic friction.

Their surprise gesture of cooperation comes as U.S. President Donald Trump shook the geopolitical framework with sweeping tariffs—hammering Indian exports with a 50% duty, including penalties tied to New Delhi’s continued imports of Russian oil . These aggressive measures have accelerated India’s drift away from exclusive alignment with Washington.

H2: Unpacking Trump’s Role as the ‘Wildcard’

Donald Trump has injected volatility into diplomatic equations. His unilateral imposition of steep tariffs aimed at penalizing India for its energy procurement strategy inadvertently nudged New Delhi closer to Beijing. Analysts describe Trump’s actions as the catalyst behind Modi’s rapprochement with Xi, ironically dubbing him “the great peacemaker” for bringing two rivals closer under duress.

While Modi once counted Trump a trusted ally, their relationship has soured. Trump’s presumptuous claim of brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan, followed by draconian tariffs over oil imports, deepened mistrust and resentment, paving the way for India to circle back to its traditional partner in Beijing.

This strategic recalibration underscores India’s emphasis on “strategic autonomy” — a refusal to let its foreign policy be dictated by any third country, including the United States.

Stabilising China–India Ties — Practical Outcomes

The leaders didn’t just exchange symbolic rhetoric; they delivered tangible commitments:

Border Stability: Both leaders emphasized that lingering territorial tensions should not define their bilateral relationship, signaling a willingness to manage differences with maturity.
Resumption of Direct Flights: Modi announced plans to restart air connectivity suspended since 2020, aiming to revive people-to-people ties and economic exchanges.
Trade Facilitation: China agreed to ease restrictions on key exports — including fertilisers and raw materials — while both sides committed to bridge India’s substantial trade deficit with Beijing.

Underlying these developments is a rumored private letter from Xi to India’s leadership, signaling willingness to reset bilateral ties — reportedly sent in the wake of Trump’s tariff escalation and tailored to gauge India’s readiness for rapprochement.

Broader Geopolitical Implications

A Turning Tide Against the Western Bloc?

Xi used the SCO forum to rebuke “bullying countries” — a veiled reference to the United States — while advancing calls for multilateralism and a multipolar world order The Times The Washington Post. The summit also spotlighted China’s push for greater economic integration across Eurasia, including a proposed SCO development bank, aimed at offering alternatives to Western-led institutions The Washington Post.

New Delhi’s warming with Beijing shouldn’t be misread as alignment against the U.S.—rather, it reflects a nuanced hedging strategy. By diversifying its diplomatic partnerships — from Washington to Moscow to Beijing — India signals flexibility in a multipolar era Wikipedia.

Meanwhile, in Australia and beyond, strategists worry whether America’s unpredictability is fracturing collective efforts to manage China’s rise — particularly affecting initiatives like the Quad and AUKUS The Australian.

Strategic Autonomy as Policy Anchor: Expect India to continue walking the tightrope—protecting its sovereign choices while engaging with both superpowers on its terms.
SCO as an Emerging Platform: Beijing’s symbolic and practical use of SCO highlights its intent to lead alternate frameworks beyond Western influence.
U.S.-India Relations—Still Salvageable? As long as the Trump administration favors tariff-heavy, transactional diplomacy, New Delhi may tilt further toward diversifying strategic alignments.

Modi’s recent engagement with Xi, set against the backdrop of Trump’s disruptive trade moves, doesn’t herald a full Indo–China alliance—but it underscores a shift. In an era of volatile alliances, India reaffirms its voice as an independent actor charting its own course.