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Amid heightened military tensions following the recent terror attack in Pahalgam that left 26 people dead, Pakistan has raised alarm over a significant drop in water flow from India through the Chenab River. According to officials in Islamabad, India has allegedly blocked nearly 90% of the usual water flow, seriously threatening Pakistan’s early Kharif crop season.
The strain between the two nuclear-armed neighbors escalated after New Delhi announced the suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in response to the deadly attack, which targeted mostly tourists in Jammu and Kashmir. Under the treaty, the rights to use the waters of the Indus river system were shared between the two nations. The Chenab, one of the crucial rivers in this system, plays a vital role in Pakistan’s irrigation and agriculture.
Muhammad Khalid Idrees Rana, spokesperson for Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA), stated that the water flow from India had been cut to unprecedented levels. “It’s unprecedented,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg, explaining that India normally releases stored water intermittently after using it for hydroelectric power generation. However, that release pattern appears to have been altered.
According to Indian news agency ANI, all gates of the Baglihar Hydroelectric Dam and Salal Dam on the Chenab River have been closed. While some water is reportedly being released through a single gate at each dam to preserve aquatic life, the volume is far below normal levels.
The IRSA Advisory Committee expressed serious concern over the situation, particularly the sudden decrease in Chenab inflows at Marala—a key intake point for irrigation. In a statement, IRSA warned that if the current supply shortfall continues, it could force a 21% cut in water availability for the early Kharif season (May to June 10). For the late Kharif season (June 11 to September), projected shortages stand at 7%, though these figures may be revised depending on the ongoing water flow.
Pakistan has labeled India’s move as a provocation. Government officials in Islamabad reiterated that halting water flow under the Indus Waters Treaty would be considered an “act of war.” The situation has added another layer of complexity to an already tense regional dynamic, with fears of further escalation looming.
As water remains a critical lifeline for Pakistan’s agriculture and food security, the dispute underscores how resource access—especially in conflict-prone regions—can quickly turn into a flashpoint for broader confrontation.
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