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Will Mumbai see heavy rain today or was the Arabian Sea depression just a brief spell? Get the latest IMD weather updates, rainfall forecast, and Mumbai’s live AQI report to know what to expect today — cloudy skies, showers, and air quality insights for residents
Today in the Mumbai region, the forecast indicates cloudy skies throughout the afternoon with some showers expected around 5–6 pm, followed by a return to cloudy conditions. A yellow-watch alert for light to moderate rainfall with isolated thunderstorms is in effect until around 4 pm IST. At the same time, the air quality index (AQI) is in the “Moderate” category, meaning air quality is acceptable for most people, though sensitive individuals should remain cautious.
In other words: the spell of weather activity triggered by a depression over the Arabian Sea is not likely to bring widespread heavy rain today, but isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible, especially in the evening. Meanwhile, air pollution remains moderate.
Below is a full-length article (~2,000 words) for your audience, with background, context, what to expect today, and health & safety tips.
1. What’s going on – The Arabian Sea Depression & Its Impact
A low-pressure system / depression over the east-central Arabian Sea has been influencing weather in western coastal India. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), as of 29 October 2025 the system was roughly centred at ~17.9° N, 69.2° E, about 410 km west-southwest of Mumbai.
The bulletin noted:
- Moderate rain or thundershowers very likely at most places in North Konkan; at many places in South Konkan-Goa and North Madhya Maharashtra.
- For Mumbai and adjoining suburban region: a forecast of partly cloudy skies, possibility of thunderstorms with light to moderate rain and gusty winds.
- Marine alert: coastal waves in the region may range ~2.6 to 3.1 metres in the offshore/near-shore zone.
So, this system is active, but note the wording: light to moderate rain, possibility of thunderstorms, localized showers—not a blanket heavy-rain event. In other words: the depression is influencing the weather, but it is not a full-blown cyclone or extremely intense rainfall system for Mumbai today.
This echoes earlier instances where depressions over the Arabian Sea caused enhanced rainfall along the Konkan coast. For instance, in June 2023, a deep depression over the Arabian Sea intensified into Cyclonic Storm “Biparjoy” and led to strong winds & rough seas in coastal Maharashtra.
Bottom line: The system is real and has the potential to cause rain, but the forecast for Mumbai is for moderate rather than heavy widespread rainfall today.
Currently 86° · Cloudy
Mumbai, India
| 3 PM | 86° | Cloudy |
| 4 PM | 85° | Cloudy |
 5 PM | 84° | Showers |
| 6 PM | 82° | Showers |
| 7 PM | 85° | Cloudy |
| 8 PM | 84° | Cloudy |
| 9 PM | 83° | Cloudy |
| 10 PM | 82° | Cloudy |
| Show more |
Let’s break it down by time period:
- Afternoon (3pm-4pm): Cloudy skies, temperature around 30°C (86°F). A yellow watch is active until ~4pm for light rain or thunder at isolated places in Mumbai, Mumbai Suburban, Palghar, Thane.
- Evening (~5pm-6pm): Showers expected — forecast says “Showers, 84°F (29°C)” at ~5pm; by 6pm “Showers, 82°F (28°C)”.
- Late evening (7pm onward): Cloudy to mostly cloudy; rain chance falling, temperature dropping to ~27-28°C (81-82°F).
- Overnight: Mostly cloudy, lowest temperatures dipping to ~26°C (79°F) or slightly lower.
Interpretation:
- There is a decent chance of evening showers or thunderstorms, especially around 5-6pm.
- The alert until 4pm suggests caution earlier in the afternoon, but heavier rainfall is less likely for many places.
- After the evening period, the rain risk declines and cloudy conditions continue.
- No strong indication of widespread heavy rainfall (e.g., very heavy downpours across the region) today.
Important caveats: Localised thunderstorms can always lead to more intense rainfall, short spells of heavy rain, gusty winds — that’s the nature of convective activity. So while the bulk forecast is moderate rain, do not rule out heavier bursts in some areas.
3. Was the Depression Just a Brief Spell?
It might help to answer: Is this depression going to sustain and bring heavy rain over a prolonged period — or is this more of a brief spell?
A few observations support the “brief spell / moderate” view:
- The forecast emphasises light to moderate rain and isolated thunderstorms, not a heavy, prolonged downpour.
- The system is centred some distance offshore (410 km west-southwest of Mumbai) and tracking north-northeastwards toward Gujarat, which suggests its influence on Mumbai will be transient rather than long-lasting.
- There are no high-level alerts (e.g., red alert) for Mumbai today indicating severe rainfall — only a yellow watch until ~4pm.
- Historically, many depressions over the Arabian Sea produce enhanced rainfall along the Konkan coast but often with spatial variability (some areas get heavy rain, others not), and often for a limited window. For example, in early June 2023 the depression intensified into a cyclone, but its heavy-rain impacts were concentrated and not uniform.
Therefore, the expectation is that the depression is influencing weather today but not necessarily triggering a major heavy-rain event for Mumbai. It resembles a moderate weather disturbance rather than a prolonged downpour system.
Key takeaway: If you’re planning outdoor activities, keep that 5-6pm window in mind for possible showers or thunderstorms. After that, the rain risk drops. The event is more of a short spell of unsettled weather rather than a full-scale heavy-rain episode.
4. Impacts & Precautions for Mumbai
Given the forecast and system assessment, what should residents and visitors in Mumbai keep in mind?
Rain-related precautions
- If you’re outdoors in the late afternoon or early evening (especially around 5-6pm), be prepared for brief showers or thunderstorms — carry an umbrella or rain-jacket.
- Avoid low-lying roads and areas prone to water-logging — even moderate rain can disrupt traffic in Mumbai’s dense infrastructure.
- If you are at sea or beaches (fishing, boating, coastal activity) be aware of increased wave heights as per IMD’s coastal alert: waves between ~2.6-3.1 m possible off the coast.
- If thunder/lightning occur, avoid open areas or tall isolated trees; seek shelter indoors.
For outdoor plans
- If you have evening plans outdoors (walks, terrace meet-ups, open-air events), aim for earlier or earlier-evening rather than around the 5-6pm window.
- After the expected shower window, the weather turns to cloudy — damp, but less likely for fresh rainfall.
For air quality and health
- With rain likely, the air may temporarily improve (rain helps clean particulate matter). But prior to rain onset, damp/humid conditions may linger.
- Sensitive individuals (with respiratory issues) should plan outdoor activity accordingly — see next section for more on AQI.
5. Air Quality Index (AQI) Status in Mumbai
Air quality remains a concern in many Indian cities, including Mumbai. Here’s the latest snapshot for Mumbai.
- According to NDTV’s real-time AQI for Mumbai: current AQI ~66, which falls into the Moderate category.
- PM10: ~71.9 µg/m³
- PM2.5: ~49.0 µg/m³
- Other pollutants: NO₂ ~25 ppb, SO₂ ~15.7 ppb, O₃ ~30 ppb.
- Another source (AQI.in) shows recent values ~89 (US scale), still Moderate, with PM2.5 ~29 µg/m³, PM10 ~39 µg/m³.
What does Moderate mean?
Under the standard classification:
- 0-50: Good
- 51-100: Satisfactory / Moderate
- 101-200: Poor
- 201-300: Very Poor
- 301-400: Severe, etc.
From NDTV’s piece: “An AQI of 66 means the air is Moderate. If it is Good or Satisfactory, normal outdoor activity is fine. For Moderate or higher, sensitive groups (children, elderly, people with heart/lung disease) should be cautious.”
Interpretation & caution
- The current AQI in Mumbai is not alarming, but it is not excellent either.
- For most people, outdoor activity is fine. But for people with asthma, chronic lung disease, older adults, children: limiting strenuous outdoor activity, staying alert is wise.
- Localised spots may have worse readings (construction zones, dense traffic corridors) — city-wide averages may mask micro-environments.
Relation with rain
- Rain can help improve air quality by washing particulate matter out of the air. So today’s showers might have a beneficial side-effect for air quality after.
- However, the showers are short/isolated — so the effect may be moderate.
6. Why the Rain Chance Isn’t Higher — Factors at Play
Here are some meteorological/contextual reasons why Mumbai is expected to see moderate rain, not necessarily a heavy sustained downpour:
- Distance from system centre: The depression is offshore, ~410 km away, so while it influences the coastal region, the core convective activity may be further out.
- Track & intensity: The system is tracking north-northeast towards Gujarat, meaning the strongest impact zone may shift away from Mumbai or be offshore.
- Spatial variability: These coastal systems often produce very localised heavy rainfall in some spots with large variation — some suburbs may see showers, others may remain nearly dry.
- Time window: Forecast indicates the main period of rain risk as late afternoon/early evening; outside that window the skies revert to just cloudy.
- No red alert for Mumbai: If there were expectation of heavy sustained rainfall the IMD would likely issue higher alert levels (orange or red). Here we have a yellow watch.
Hence, one should temper expectations: yes, rain is likely; but heavy, prolonged, city-wide — less likely under current conditions.
7. What to Expect Over the Next Few Days (Beyond Today)
While today’s forecast is moderate, what about the coming days?
- Since the system is moving and tracking, the main influence on Mumbai may start to reduce after today (assuming the system moves away or weakens).
- If the system intensifies or stalls, further rainfall episodes are possible — but current information suggests a limited window for stronger rainfall in the Mumbai region.
- Keep an eye on updates from IMD for any change in alert level, especially if convective bands organise or shift closer to the coast.
8. Health & Safety Tips — Rain + Air Quality Combined
Given both weather and air quality conditions, here are consolidated recommendations:
For everyone
- Carry a light rain-jacket or umbrella if you plan to be outdoors in the late afternoon/early evening.
- If you are driving or commuting: exercise caution on potentially water-logged roads, reduce speed, keep headlights on in rain/low visibility.
- After the rain, roads may be slippery — maintain safe driving distances.
- If you plan beach or coastal activity: watch out for stronger waves and avoid venturing far out.
For sensitive groups (children, elderly, respiratory/cardiac conditions)
- On days when showers are expected, try to – if possible – schedule outdoor activity before the likely rain window (before 5pm) or after the rain if it has cleared.
- Monitor local AQI readings; if readings exceed ~100 (Poor category) in your area, limit outdoor exposure.
- If you have asthma or lung disease: keep medications handy, avoid strenuous outdoor exertion in the late afternoon when rain/humidity/gusty winds may aggravate conditions.
Post-rain environment
- Once rain ends, humidity may be higher; dampness plus stagnant air may make you feel uncomfortable indoors — ensure ventilation indoor while avoiding bringing in polluted outdoor air if AQI is elevated.
- After rain, ensure drainage in your surroundings is functioning; prevent water stagnation that might contribute to mosquitoes or dampness indoors.
9. Why Mumbai’s Air Quality Matters Even on Rainy/Cloudy Days
Often people think “rain = good air”, but the relationship is more nuanced:
- Rain helps particulate matter settle out of the atmosphere, but if the rainfall is short/patchy and if pollution sources remain high (traffic, construction, industrial emissions), the improvement may be limited.
- Mumbai’s geography (coastal, high population density, heavy traffic, construction activity) means sources of PM2.5/PM10 are persistent.
- Cloudy/damp conditions may trap pollutants near the surface longer, especially if wind speeds drop.
- As one Reddit user put it: “The AQIs have increased back largely because monsoons have ended. The dust & other pollutants stay up more in the air.”
- Thus, while today’s showers may offer some relief, maintaining awareness about AQI is still important.
10. Key Messages for Your Audience
Here’s how you might summarise for your readers/followers:
- Be prepared for evening showers or thunderstorms in Mumbai today (approx 5-6pm).
- But don’t expect a major heavy rain event for most of the city — forecast is for moderate/isolated rain, not a downpour across the board.
- Air quality in Mumbai is currently Moderate (AQI ~66 per one source) — generally acceptable, but sensitive individuals should exercise caution.
- Rain may help improve air quality slightly, but conditions (humidity, construction pollution, traffic emissions) mean pollution remains a background risk.
- Take sensible precautions: carry umbrella, avoid low-lying flooded roads, monitor AQI, limit strenuous outdoor activity if you are in a sensitive group.
11. Final Thoughts
The weather interplay between the Arabian Sea depression and Mumbai’s coastal conditions brings a bit of excitement for weather watchers — but in plain-English: today is a “take-it-steady” kind of day rather than a high-drama weather event. The system is in play, yes, but Mumbai’s direct exposure to heavy rain is moderated by distance, system track, and timing.
For the citizens of Mumbai, that means: get ready for some dusk showers, plan with caution, but you’re unlikely to need full-on monsoon-style preparations. Meanwhile, the air you breathe is okay but not perfect — keep it in mind, especially if you or family members aren’t feeling their best.
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